Gye Greene went a few steps further down the rabbit hole. He asked for a copy of the data that fed my charts, and ran it through a series of statistical contortions to determine the true likelihood of a lasting "Schwarz Effect". I had originally recorded a few extra details of each auction, such as the condition of the scraper, the shape of the casting (there are a couple varieties), and whether the blade was missing. Gye included all of this in his methodology, and found that price was controlled more by these factors than by Schwarz' Mojo. Gye did confirm my observation that even the crustiest piece of crap from the bottom of the ocean would sell in the post-Schwarz era.
So it seems that Schwarz has the power to stir us all up into a frenzy of buying every tool in sight, but not necessarily to make us overpay in the long term. Shucks.
Gye's amazingly detailed analysis is available at this link, please check it out. Thanks to Gye for taking the time on this! A few of his key insights:
- Expect to pay more for a scraper in the original box. This commanded about a $25 premium.
- Early castings have a base with a straight trailing edge, instead of the later concave curved edge. The straight version will run you almost $10 more at auction.
- No blade? Expect to pay about $11 less.
Oh and in case anybody out there finds themselves in possession of a number 80 that needs a little rehab, you may find this post by Pickering Mike interesting over at Ramblings of a Novice Woodworker.
Think Gye and I are nutjobs? Chris Schwarz does! Tell us what you think in the comments!